November 12, 2004

Let's Settle the Moral Values Voter Issue

I was recently given a link to a Barna Group story about how important Christians were to George Bush's re-election. I glanced at the story, then I clicked on the "About Us" link. "The ultimate aim of the firm is to partner with Christian ministries and individuals to be a catalyst in moral and spiritual transformation in the United States."

Red Flag: The Barna Group might be just a little biased.

Back to the story:

The acclaimed “values voters” turned out in huge numbers on Election Day to support the incumbent and thereby prevent a replay of the 2000 cliffhanger outcome.

On the other hand, Common Sense and Wonder quotes a Washington Post piece by Charles Krauthammer that says:

The way the question was set up, moral values were sure to be ranked disproportionately high. Why? Because it was a multiple-choice question, and moral values cover a group of issues, while all the other choices were individual issues. Chop up the alternatives finely enough, and moral values are sure to get a bare plurality over the others.

Look at the choices:

• Education, 4 percent.

• Taxes, 5 percent.

• Health Care, 8 percent.

• Iraq, 15 percent.

• Terrorism, 19 percent.

• Economy and Jobs, 20 percent.

• Moral Values, 22 percent.

"Moral values" encompass abortion, gay marriage, Hollywood's influence, the general coarsening of the culture and, for some, the morality of preemptive war. The way to logically pit this class of issues against the others would be to pit it against other classes: "war issues" or "foreign policy issues" (Iraq plus terrorism) and "economic issues" (jobs, taxes, health care, etc).

If you pit group against group, the moral values class comes in dead last: war issues at 34 percent, economic issues variously described at 33 percent and moral values at 22 percent -- i.e., they are at least a third less salient than the others.

The Value Voters phenomenon is a myth.

Posted by Blog Jones at November 12, 2004 02:26 PM | Category: Politics

Comments

"Red Flag: The Barna Group might be just a little biased."

You don't think other polling groups are as well? :-)

I don't place much confidence in most polls of any kind.

Posted by: Barbara H. at November 14, 2004 07:16 PM

Yeah, two people looking at the same polling data can come up with completely different conclusions; it's all in the interpretation. Political polling tends to be done to prove a point instead of finding out the truth, so they're naturally suspect.

Posted by: Blog Jones at November 14, 2004 08:35 PM
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